Bitcoin’s recent drop to $98,000 brought price directly into a major support zone that has historically acted as a springboard for mid-term rebounds. This area has once again shown signs of demand, suggesting that a relief push upward is possible in the coming days. However, this support is now extremely fragile. If Bitcoin loses this level and begins treating it as resistance, it would be a very bearish signal and could open the door to a deeper, more aggressive downside move.
If a bounce occurs, traders should keep an eye on the immediate short-term targets: $102,000, followed by $106,000, and potentially $112,000 if momentum strengthens. These are logical reaction zones where sellers are likely waiting. Still, it’s important to note that the broader downtrend remains fully intact. The trend will not be invalidated unless Bitcoin closes above $118,000, a level that would finally break the sequence of lower highs and restore bullish structure on higher timeframes.
One of the most important indicators right now is retail positioning: over 75% of retail traders are currently long, trying desperately to catch the bottom. Historically, this type of imbalance creates fuel for further downward moves, as market makers often target this easy liquidity. Yet, paradoxically, this is not an ideal moment to start shorting Bitcoin — the risk of getting caught in a sharp dead-cat bounce is extremely high. With both sides vulnerable, the market is set for volatility, and disciplined positioning is more important than bold predictions.
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